Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-3
- Mitch KellerPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Happ homered to right center (397 feet).1–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Palacios grounded into fielder's choice to second, Reynolds scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1McCutchen grounded out to third, Hayes scored, Reynolds to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Fair odds
- CHC -102
- PIT +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.2 – 5.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −5 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +39 Elo | CHC 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 11th of 3031–29 | Road vs home | 31–3422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 7–0 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.