Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Joshua PalaciosBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre JacksonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Joe hit sacrifice fly to right, Hayes scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 10Happ singled to right, Tauchman scored and Swanson scored on fielding error by right fielder Joe, Happ to second.5–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 3Palacios homered to right (420 feet), Joe scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Bae singled to right, Rodríguez scored, Capra to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Hoerner singled to right, Gomes scored, Tauchman to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Candelario hit sacrifice fly to left, Suzuki scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Bellinger singled to left, Hoerner scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Fair odds
- CHC -101
- PIT +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.2 – 5.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Rob Zastryzny (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +32 Elo | CHC 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 11th of 3030–29 | Road vs home | 31–3322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 6–0 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.