Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting3-5, 5 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Joshua PalaciosBatting2-3
- Bailey FalterPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gomes grounded out to second, Bellinger scored, Suzuki to second.10–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 19–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 9Bellinger doubled to left, Happ scored and Hoerner scored, Bellinger to third.9–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 8Candelario grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Suzuki scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Suzuki doubled to right, Bellinger scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Bellinger doubled to center, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Candelario homered to left (396 feet), Suzuki scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Hayes grounded out to second, Bae scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Bellinger singled to center, Hoerner scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Fair odds
- CHC -101
- PIT +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.2 – 5.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +11 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +23 Elo | CHC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3032–30 | Road vs home | 32–3522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 8–1 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.