Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Carlos SantanaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schwarber reached on infield single to second, Realmuto scored, Marsh to third.5–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 8Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to right, Turner scored, Harper to third.4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 6Turner homered to right (371 feet).3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Turang singled to right, Canha scored.2–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 5Canha doubled to right, Adames scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Santana homered to right center (417 feet), Contreras scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Yelich singled to left, Taylor scored, Yelich to second.2–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Taylor doubled to left, Turang scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 50%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- PHI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −14 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +2 Elo | PHI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3033–33 | Road vs home | 39–277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–3 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.