Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting2-6, 3 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sánchez doubled to left, Bogaerts scored.9–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 7Cooper hit sacrifice fly to right, Machado scored, Bogaerts to third.9–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 6Kim singled to center, Batten scored, Grisham to second.9–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking9–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–4
- 5Schwarber homered to right (440 feet).9–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 28–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 4Kim singled to center, Batten scored and Grisham scored.8–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 28–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 18–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 4Grisham singled to right, Bogaerts scored, Batten to third.8–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 3Sosa doubled to left, Pache scored.8–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 3Pache tripled to center, Stott scored.7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 2Turner homered to left (403 feet), Schwarber scored.6–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 48%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- PHI +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −11 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Rich Hill: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +17 Elo | PHI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3034–34 | Road vs home | 36–3418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 3–1 SD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.