Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Padres- Garrett CooperBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cooper singled to left, Bogaerts scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Cave singled to left, Marsh scored, Sosa to second.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Realmuto homered to center (417 feet).4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Harper doubled to center, Schwarber scored and Sosa scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Schwarber homered to center (465 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Fair odds
- SD -102
- PHI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +8 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +9 Elo | SD 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.12nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3035–35 | Road vs home | 37–3518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 4–2 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.