Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting4-6, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Smith homered to right center (404 feet).13–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play13–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 313–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul13–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 213–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 113–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul13–5
- 9Altuve homered to center (420 feet).13–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 212–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul12–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–5
- 9Dubón homered to right center (378 feet).12–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 211–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 7Diaz homered to left center (453 feet), J. Abreu scored and McCormick scored.11–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–5
- 7McCormick grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bregman scored and Tucker scored, J. Abreu to second, J. Abreu safe at third on fielding error by shortstop Seager.8–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 7J. Abreu walked, Alvarez scored, Tucker to second, Bregman to third.6–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 46–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 6Garver homered to left center (451 feet).5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Altuve homered to left center (429 feet).5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Dubón homered to left (393 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Seager homered to center (422 feet).3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Fair odds
- TEX -110
- HOU +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.3 – 5.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −3 | HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +18 Elo | TEX 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3042–27 | Road vs home | 43–264th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 6–4 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.