Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9García homered to left (430 feet).5–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 8Lewis singled to left, Luplow scored, Polanco to second.5–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 14–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Garver homered to left center (426 feet).4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Correa singled to left, Lewis scored, Kepler to second.4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Semien scored on Sands wild pitch, Lowe to second on wild pitch by Sands, Seager to third on wild pitch by Sands.3–4
- 6Semien scored on Sands wild pitch, Lowe to second on wild pitch by Sands, Seager to third on wild pitch by Sands.3–4
- 5Lewis homered to right (347 feet), Julien scored and Polanco scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Garver homered to left center (396 feet), Seager scored and Lowe scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Fair odds
- TEX -116
- MIN +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.0 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +42 Elo | TEX 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 19th of 3031–36 | Road vs home | 42–264th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 5–1 TEX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.