Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Donovan SolanoBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dallas KeuchelPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 10Heim singled to left, Seager scored.9–7
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 19–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 10Jeffers hit sacrifice fly to left, Correa scored.9–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul9–6
- 10Kepler singled to right, Lewis scored, Correa to third.8–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 10Correa singled to center, Polanco scored, Lewis to second.7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 8Grossman hit sacrifice fly to center, Lowe scored, García to third.6–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 16–6
- 4Taveras singled to center, Garver scored, Martinez to third.6–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 4Solano singled to left, Wallner scored and Taylor scored.6–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 4Taylor doubled to left, Farmer scored and Jeffers scored, Wallner to third.4–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Jeffers singled to left, Luplow scored, Farmer to second.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Solano homered to left (403 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Fair odds
- TEX -118
- MIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.7 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +1 | MIN: Dallas Keuchel: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +48 Elo | TEX 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 3030–36 | Road vs home | 42–254th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 4–1 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.