Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Polanco homered to right (389 feet), Jeffers scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Vázquez homered to right (351 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Luplow homered to right (381 feet), Correa scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Seager homered to right (422 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Fair odds
- TEX -121
- MIN +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.7 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +13 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +71 Elo | TEX 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 3029–36 | Road vs home | 42–244th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.