Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching2.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Polanco homered to left (437 feet), Lewis scored and Kepler scored.6–10
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–10
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 36–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 26–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 4Kwan doubled to center, Arias scored.6–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 36–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 3Wallner homered to right center (438 feet).5–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 35–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 3Giménez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Calhoun scored, Laureano safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Lewis.5–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 2Lewis homered to left center (393 feet), Wallner scored, Solano scored and Julien scored.4–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 2Solano reached on infield single to second, Polanco scored, Wallner to third.4–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Correa scored on a balk, Wallner to second on a balk, Polanco to third on a balk.4–1
- 2Correa scored on a balk, Wallner to second on a balk, Polanco to third on a balk.4–1
- 2Bo Naylor homered to center (431 feet), Arias scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Arias doubled to right, Giménez scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Fair odds
- MIN -118
- CLE +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | CLE: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +40 Elo | MIN 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 19th of 3029–36 | Road vs home | 39–277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 4–3 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.