Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GaddisPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Twins- Michael A. TaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taylor homered to right (370 feet).4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Brennan singled to center, Giménez scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Lewis homered to left (396 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Calhoun grounded out to first, Arias scored, Ramírez to second, Kwan to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Ramírez scored, Calhoun to third on passed ball by Vázquez.2–0
- 3Ramírez scored, Calhoun to third on passed ball by Vázquez.2–0
- 2Bo Naylor homered to right (388 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 5.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +6 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +50 Elo | MIN 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.26th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 21st of 3029–37 | Road vs home | 40–277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 4–4 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.