Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kole CalhounBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Calhoun homered to center (433 feet), Bo Naylor scored and Ramírez scored.5–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 9Giménez scored, Brennan to third on wild pitch by Duran.2–2
- 9Giménez scored on Duran wild pitch, Brennan to third on wild pitch by Duran.2–2
- 8Kwan singled to left, Arias scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 5Polanco singled to right, Solano scored and Wallner scored, Julien to second.0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Fair odds
- MIN -115
- CLE +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +2 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +17 Elo | MIN 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.26th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 3030–37 | Road vs home | 40–287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 5–4 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.