Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting3-5, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCormick homered to center (420 feet).12–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–3
- 9J. Abreu homered to left (353 feet), Bregman scored and Tucker scored.11–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Semien homered to left center (402 feet).8–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 5Semien singled to left, Jankowski scored, Taveras to second.8–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 5Brantley hit sacrifice fly to left, Tucker scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 3J. Abreu homered to left center (425 feet), Peña scored, Alvarez scored and Tucker scored.7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Brantley homered to right (357 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Semien homered to left (404 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Alvarez homered to center (424 feet), Peña scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Fair odds
- TEX -108
- HOU +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.8 – 5.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +9 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +9 Elo | TEX 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3044–27 | Road vs home | 43–286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 8–4 TEX in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.