Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting3-5, 3 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.1 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Alvarez homered to center (442 feet), Peña scored.14–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 114–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–1
- 7Maldonado homered to right (373 feet), Dubón scored.12–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play12–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 310–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 210–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 110–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–1
- 7Dubón doubled to center, McCormick scored.10–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 19–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–1
- 5Semien singled to left, Heim scored, Taveras to third.9–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 3Altuve homered to center (426 feet).9–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 3Maldonado homered to left (394 feet), Dubón scored.8–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2J. Abreu singled to center, Bregman scored and Peña scored, Tucker to third.6–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Altuve homered to left center (398 feet).4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 34–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1McCormick singled to left, Bregman scored and Bregman scored, J. Abreu to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1J. Abreu grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Peña scored, Tucker out at second, Bregman to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Fair odds
- TEX -110
- HOU +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.7 – 5.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +1 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +23 Elo | TEX 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3043–27 | Road vs home | 43–275th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 7–4 TEX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.