Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Young reached on infield single to third, L. García scored, Kieboom to second, Millas to third.7–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 17–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 6Hernández doubled to left, Freeman scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5Barnes hit sacrifice fly to center, Heyward scored, Outman to third.6–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 5Rojas singled to center, Muncy scored, Outman to second, Heyward to third.5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Millas singled to center, Ruiz scored and Vargas scored, Chavis to second.4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Peralta hit by pitch, Rojas scored, Freeman to second, Barnes to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Outman homered to right (401 feet).3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Heyward singled to center, Freeman scored and Muncy scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.8 – 5.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −8 | LAD: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +88 Elo | LAD 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3039–31 | Road vs home | 30–4227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.