San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Martinez singled to left, Betts scored and Freeman scored, Martinez thrown out at second.2–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 7Outman hit sacrifice fly to left, Muncy scored.2–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 7Taylor singled to center, Smith scored, Martinez to second, Muncy to third.2–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to right center (380 feet).2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Smith homered to center (412 feet), Hernández scored and Freeman scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Grisham bunted into fielder's choice to third, Soto scored, Bogaerts to second, Machado out at third.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Peralta grounded into fielder's choice to first, Smith scored, Martinez out at second, Muncy to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Freeman homered to left center (387 feet), Hernández scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Muncy hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeman scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Fair odds
- LAD -129
- SD +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.6 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −16 | SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +43 Elo | LAD 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 25th of 3029–41 | Road vs home | 47–252nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 3–8 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.