San Diego Padres at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Matt CarpenterBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rosario homered to left (409 feet).2–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 6Tucker tripled to center, Peña scored.1–12
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 6Bregman hit sacrifice fly to center, Altuve scored.1–11
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–10
- 6Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to center, Diaz scored, Altuve to third.1–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 6Peña grounded into fielder's choice to third, McCormick scored on error by catcher Campusano, Altuve to second, Diaz to third.1–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 6Altuve hit by pitch, Brantley scored, Diaz to second, McCormick to third.1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 11–7
- 6Diaz singled to right, J. Abreu scored, McCormick to second, Brantley to third.1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6J. Abreu singled to center, Tucker scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Tucker tripled to right, Bregman scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.9 – 5.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −1 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +47 Elo | HOU 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 25th of 3028–40 | Road vs home | 36–3518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.