San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Pedro AvilaPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martinez singled to center, Freeman scored, Smith to second.11–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–8
- 9Bogaerts homered to right (335 feet).11–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–7
- 9Soto homered to right center (385 feet), Grisham scored and Tatis Jr. scored.10–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–7
- 6Batten doubled to center, Profar scored, Campusano to third.7–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 17–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 6Machado homered to right (363 feet), Soto scored.6–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 4Campusano grounded out to third, Bogaerts scored.4–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 4Machado homered to left center (388 feet).3–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 3Betts doubled to center, Heyward scored, Rojas scored and Taylor scored.2–7
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 3Taylor singled to right, Martinez scored, Heyward to third.2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Muncy homered to right center (422 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- SD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −27 | SD: Pedro Avila: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 1.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +44 Elo | LAD 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 3028–41 | Road vs home | 47–242nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–8 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.