Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tommy PhamBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith tripled to right, Betts scored and Freeman scored.11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Pham homered to right (336 feet).11–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 110–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–0
- 7Thomas homered to right center (427 feet).10–0
- 7Pitch 14 : Ball In Play10–0
- 7Pitch 13 : Ball 29–0
- 7Pitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–0
- 2Longoria hit sacrifice fly to right, Walker scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.9–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 2Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Pham scored, Walker to third.8–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
- 2Carroll homered to right (421 feet).7–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 1Longoria doubled to center, Thomas scored.6–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 1Moreno homered to left (419 feet), Pham scored and Walker scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- ARI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +20 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +87 Elo | LAD 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 53–281st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 5–8 LAD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.