Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moreno doubled to center, Thomas scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6J. Abreu doubled to center, Tucker scored and Bregman scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Fair odds
- ARI -108
- HOU +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +10 | HOU: Jose Urquidy: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU 0 Elo | HOU 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3048–30 | Road vs home | 43–3512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.