Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4
- Bryce JarvisPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Moncada homered to center (400 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Vaughn homered to left center (383 feet), Moncada scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Fair odds
- ARI -112
- CHW +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.7 – 4.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | ARI: Bryce Jarvis (no track record yet) · CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +58 Elo | ARI 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–39 | Road vs home | 30–4729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 2–0 CHW in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.