Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCarthy grounded out to first, Perdomo scored.15–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play15–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 114–4
- 9Perdomo tripled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored and Zavala scored.14–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–4
- 8Marte homered to center (453 feet).12–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 311–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–4
- 6Walker homered to right (351 feet), Marte scored.11–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 19–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking9–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 5Moreno hit sacrifice fly to center, Thomas scored.9–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 5Thomas singled to right, Walker scored.8–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 5Walker tripled to right, Carroll scored, Marte scored and Pham scored.7–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pham walked, Perdomo scored, Marte to second, Carroll to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 44–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 4.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −8 | ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Jose Urena: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +38 Elo | ARI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3039–39 | Road vs home | 30–4528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.