Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Judge walked, Bauers scored, LeMahieu to second, Cabrera to third.7–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 47–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 37–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 9Moreno doubled to right, Perdomo scored.7–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 36–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 8Walker grounded out to third, Carroll scored, Pham to second.6–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to left, McCarthy scored, Thomas to second, Lawlar to third.5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 7Longoria singled to left, Pham scored and Walker scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pham hit sacrifice fly to center, Moreno scored, Carroll to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Fair odds
- NYY -108
- ARI +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −2 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +6 Elo | NYY 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 11th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 41–3818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–1 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.