Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wells homered to right (416 feet).6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 9Horwitz singled to center, Bichette scored and Springer scored, Biggio to third.6–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 9Bichette singled to center, Kiermaier scored, Springer to second.4–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 8Merrifield walked, Biggio scored, Horwitz to second, Chapman to third.3–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 43–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 8Horwitz walked, Springer scored, Chapman to second, Biggio to third.2–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 42–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Bichette reached on infield single to shortstop, Kiermaier scored, Springer to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Fair odds
- NYY -103
- TOR +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −1 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Michael King: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +8 Elo | TOR 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 5th of 3043–33 | Road vs home | 39–3718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 4–4 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.