New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WalterPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peraza homered to center (403 feet), Florial scored.8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8LeMahieu doubled to left, Volpe scored, Cabrera to third.6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7Casas grounded out to third, Rafaela scored, Verdugo to second.5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Urías scored, Casas safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Volpe, Verdugo to second.5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 3Devers homered to right (382 feet).5–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 2Judge homered to center (418 feet), Peraza scored, Cabrera scored and LeMahieu scored.5–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2LeMahieu reached on infield single to second, Florial scored, Cabrera to second, Peraza to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Abreu singled to left, Verdugo scored, Casas to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Verdugo grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rafaela scored on throwing error by shortstop Volpe, Devers out at second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -112
- NYY +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | 0 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Robertson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +25 Elo | BOS 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 38–3718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 3–9 BOS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.