Milwaukee Brewers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Joey WiemerBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 13Higashioka doubled to left, Pereira scored.3–4
- 13Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 13Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 13Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 13Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 13Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 13Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 12Stanton homered to center (419 feet), Torres scored.3–3
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 12Monasterio hit sacrifice fly to left, Wiemer scored.3–1
- 12Pitch 11 : Ball In Play3–1
- 12Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 12Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 12Pitch 8 : Ball 32–1
- 12Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 12Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 12Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 12Wiemer doubled to left, Santana scored.2–1
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 11Cabrera doubled to right, Volpe scored.1–1
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 11Taylor singled to center, Caratini scored.1–0
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Fair odds
- NYY -102
- MIL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +11 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +4 Elo | MIL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.410th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3039–34 | Road vs home | 38–3616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–0 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.