Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting3-4
- Alex FaedoPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torres doubled to left, Domínguez scored and Judge scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 6Stanton homered to left center (451 feet), Torres scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Cabrera singled to right, Carpenter scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1LeMahieu homered to right center (369 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 62%
- Fair odds
- NYY -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −31 | +9 | DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 1.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +83 Elo | NYY 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3034–34 | Road vs home | 36–3314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–3 NYY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.