Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Miguel CabreraBatting4-5, 3 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-2
- Mike ClevingerPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8P. Meadows singled to center, Kelly scored, Carpenter thrown out at third.10–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 6Cabrera singled to left, McKinstry scored, Torkelson to third.9–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–0
- 4Cabrera singled to center, Torkelson scored.8–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Torkelson doubled to right, Baddoo scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 2Torkelson doubled to left, McKinstry scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 2McKinstry singled to center, Baddoo scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Lipcius homered to left center (399 feet), Carpenter scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Carpenter singled to left, Cabrera scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Cabrera doubled to right, Torkelson scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Fair odds
- CHW -106
- DET +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.4 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +18 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +20 Elo | CHW 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3032–34 | Road vs home | 28–3826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 4–4 CHW in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.