Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Robert Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Anderson scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Rogers singled to center, Baddoo scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6P. Meadows flied out to second, Torkelson scored on throwing error by second baseman Sosa.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Greene singled to right, P. Meadows scored and Rogers scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Benintendi singled to center, Anderson scored, Benintendi to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 49%
- Fair odds
- CHW -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +5 Elo | DET 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 28–3726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 3–4 CHW in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.