Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Benintendi doubled to right, Anderson scored.10–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 39–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 29–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 6Anderson tripled to left, Andrus scored and Colás scored.9–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 3Santander homered to right center (369 feet).7–5
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play7–5
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking7–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 37–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 3Andrus singled to center, Vaughn scored, Andrus safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Mullins.7–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 3Vaughn doubled to left, Jiménez scored.6–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 35–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 3Robert Jr. homered to center (405 feet).5–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 2Colás homered to right center (421 feet), Andrus scored.4–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 2Vaughn homered to center (397 feet), Jiménez scored.2–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 66%
- Fair odds
- BAL -148
- CHW +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 5.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −6 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +115 Elo | BAL 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3024–44 | Road vs home | 42–255th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–4 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.