Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Colás grounded out to first, Moncada scored, Vaughn to second.3–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 9Vaughn singled to right, Jiménez scored, Moncada to third.2–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 8Santander singled to center, Rutschman scored, Henderson to second.1–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–9
- 8Rutschman singled to center, McKenna scored.1–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 8McKenna doubled to right, Urías scored and Mullins scored.1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 8Mullins grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Westburg scored, Hays out at second.1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 7Santander doubled to right, Henderson scored, McKenna scored and Rutschman scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Frazier singled to right, Hays scored, Urías to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Sosa homered to center (397 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 67%
- Fair odds
- BAL -148
- CHW +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.4 – 5.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +6 | CHW: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +124 Elo | BAL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3024–43 | Road vs home | 41–255th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–3 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.