Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-3
- Michael KopechPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Santander homered to right (378 feet), McKenna scored and Henderson scored.0–9
- 8Pitch 11 : Ball In Play0–9
- 8Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 30–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 8McKenna singled to left, Urías scored and Frazier scored.0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Mountcastle singled to center, Henderson scored, Santander to third.0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4McKenna scored on Kopech wild pitch.0–3
- 4McKenna scored on Kopech wild pitch.0–3
- 3O'Hearn singled to center, Rutschman scored and Santander scored, Mountcastle to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 65%
- Fair odds
- BAL -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.4 – 5.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −10 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +105 Elo | BAL 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.38th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 27th of 3024–42 | Road vs home | 40–255th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–2 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.