Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner BanksPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Torkelson homered to left (436 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Kelly doubled to left, P. Meadows scored and Vierling scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Andrus singled to left, Jiménez scored, Andrus to second, Moncada to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Jiménez singled to center, Anderson scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 46%
- Fair odds
- CHW -101
- DET +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −15 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +24 Elo | DET 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3033–34 | Road vs home | 28–3927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 5–4 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.