Milwaukee Brewers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Tyrone TaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Monasterio walked, Contreras scored, Caratini to second, Canha to third.9–2
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 49–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 38–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 29–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 9Caratini walked, Frelick scored, Canha to second, Contreras to third.8–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 48–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 37–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 9Contreras singled to center, Taylor scored and Turang scored, Frelick to second.7–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Caratini hit sacrifice fly to right, Santana scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Canha singled to left, Frelick scored, Santana to second, Contreras to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 8Taylor homered to left (348 feet).3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Peraza grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stanton scored, Pereira to second, Volpe to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Volpe singled to left, Torres scored, Stanton to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Adames tripled to right, Adames scored on throwing error by first baseman LeMahieu and Canha scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Fair odds
- NYY -103
- MIL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +12 | MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Michael King: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +1 Elo | MIL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3038–34 | Road vs home | 38–3514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.