Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Victor CaratiniBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5McCutchen doubled to left, Reynolds scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 5Hayes homered to left center (427 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Suwinski homered to center (410 feet), McCutchen scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Turang hit sacrifice fly to left, Adames scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Caratini hit sacrifice fly to right, Frelick scored, Adames to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.8 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −8 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +38 Elo | MIL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 9th of 3036–32 | Road vs home | 32–3623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 7–3 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.