Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Joshua PalaciosBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RomPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Palacios homered to right center (420 feet), McCutchen scored.7–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 37–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 7Walker homered to center (421 feet), Edman scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 6Bae singled to right, Andujar scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Andujar doubled to right, Rodríguez scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Nootbaar homered to center (416 feet).3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5McCutchen singled to center, Hayes scored, Reynolds to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Reynolds singled to left, Bae scored, Hayes to second.2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Joe tripled to right, McCutchen scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2O'Neill homered to left center (392 feet), Arenado scored and Contreras scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Fair odds
- STL -107
- PIT +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.6 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | PIT: Thomas Hatch: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · STL: Drew Rom: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +1 Elo | STL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3030–37 | Road vs home | 29–3824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 8–3 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.