Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting1-3
- Zack GreinkePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rivas doubled to left, Suwinski scored, Rivas thrown out at third.5–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 7Palacios reached on infield single to first, Hayes scored, McCutchen to second.4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 7McCutchen singled to left, Williams scored, Hayes to third.3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Hayes doubled to left, Bae scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Rivas grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Rodríguez scored, Peguero out at second, Suwinski to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Fair odds
- PIT -103
- KC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.3 – 5.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −5 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +17 Elo | PIT 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–37 | Road vs home | 23–4029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.