Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre JacksonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Angel ZerpaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Suwinski homered to center (436 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Witt Jr. homered to left center (397 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Suwinski singled to right, Capra scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Capra doubled to left, Peguero scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Reynolds homered to left center (436 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Fair odds
- PIT -105
- KC +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.0 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | PIT: Andre Jackson: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · KC: Angel Zerpa: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +19 Elo | PIT 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3028–37 | Road vs home | 23–4229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–0 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.