Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Liover PegueroBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermin singled to right, Melendez scored and Velázquez scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 9Bae grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Suwinski scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 9Peguero homered to left (416 feet), Rodríguez scored and Palacios scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 8Hayes homered to left center (424 feet), Peguero scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Waters lined out to first, Witt Jr. scored, Velázquez to second, Perez to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Fair odds
- PIT -101
- KC +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.1 – 5.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +22 | PIT: Colin Selby: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +19 Elo | KC 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–37 | Road vs home | 23–4129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.