Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 10Goldschmidt hit sacrifice fly to center, Winn scored.4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to right, McCutchen scored.4–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 10Peguero scored on Romero wild pitch, McCutchen to second on wild pitch by Romero.3–1
- 10Peguero scored on Romero wild pitch, McCutchen to second on wild pitch by Romero.3–1
- 10McCutchen reached on infield single to shortstop, Rodríguez scored, Peguero to third.2–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 6Contreras homered to center (427 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Rivas doubled to right, Peguero scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -110
- PIT +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +24 Elo | STL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3029–37 | Road vs home | 29–3724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 7–3 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.