Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Miguel AndujarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack ThompsonPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Andujar grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Reynolds scored, Joe out at second, McCutchen to third.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Palacios reached on infield single to second, Walker scored on throwing error by second baseman Capra.3–6
- 7Pitch 12 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 11 : Ball 33–5
- 7Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 4Burleson singled to center, Edman scored and Nootbaar scored, Arenado to third.3–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Peguero doubled to center, Joe scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Joe grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Reynolds scored, McCutchen out at second.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Walker homered to left (387 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Gorman singled to right, Edman scored and Nootbaar scored, Gorman to second, Goldschmidt to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Andujar homered to left (405 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Fair odds
- STL -107
- PIT +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.7 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +10 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Zack Thompson: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +17 Elo | STL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 3031–37 | Road vs home | 29–3925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 9–3 STL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.