Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Carlos SantanaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andre JacksonPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Joe homered to left center (410 feet), Reynolds scored and Hayes scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 5Canha singled to left, Contreras scored and Santana scored on fielding error by left fielder Palacios, Canha out stretching at second.7–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Santana doubled to left, Taylor scored, Contreras to third.5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Yelich hit sacrifice fly to left, Turang scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Turang reached on infield single to third, Monasterio scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Monasterio tripled to left, Frelick scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Canha grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Yelich scored, Santana out at second, Contreras to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -102
- PIT +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.7 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +6 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Andre Jackson: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +27 Elo | MIL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3036–33 | Road vs home | 33–3623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 7–4 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.