Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler HoltonPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7P. Meadows hit sacrifice fly to center, Vierling scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Ibañez singled to center, Torkelson scored, Vierling to third.2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Torres singled to center, Judge scored, Domínguez to second.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Peraza doubled to right, Torres scored, Stanton to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Domínguez homered to right center (383 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2LeMahieu singled to right, Peraza scored, Cabrera to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Carpenter singled to left, McKinstry scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Fair odds
- NYY -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +49 Elo | NYY 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 14th of 3034–35 | Road vs home | 37–3314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–4 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.