Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ibañez homered to right center (370 feet), Vierling scored.10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–3
- 4Pereira doubled to left, Torres scored and Volpe scored.8–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 4Torkelson homered to left (382 feet), Vierling scored.8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4Vierling singled to right, Nevin scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 35–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 4Nevin doubled to left, Carpenter scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Ibañez hit sacrifice fly to center, Vierling scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Vierling doubled to left, Lipcius scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Torres homered to right (363 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Torkelson homered to right (354 feet), Vierling scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Fair odds
- NYY -117
- DET +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +34 Elo | NYY 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 15th of 3034–36 | Road vs home | 38–3314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–5 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.