Milwaukee Brewers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Santana singled to right, Monasterio scored, Contreras to third.8–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 27–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 17–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 8Monasterio doubled to left, Turang scored and Wiemer scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Adames doubled to right, Santana scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Santana singled to right, Contreras scored on error, Santana safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Bauers.4–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 7Contreras singled to left, Monasterio scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Adames homered to right center (383 feet), Santana scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Domínguez homered to right center (407 feet), Judge scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −5 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +6 Elo | NYY 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 11th of 3037–34 | Road vs home | 38–3414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.