Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Canha singled to center, Frelick scored, Adames to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Andujar singled to center, Bae scored, Reynolds to second.3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Bae tripled to center, Delay scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Palacios singled to center, Hayes scored, Suwinski to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Suwinski doubled to right, Reynolds scored, Hayes to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Hayes homered to left (384 feet).3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Adames homered to left center (396 feet), Yelich scored and Contreras scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.9 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −7 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Colin Selby: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +37 Elo | MIL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3037–33 | Road vs home | 33–3723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 8–4 PIT in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.