New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wells reached first base on catcher's interference, Pereira to home, Torres to second, Judge to third.4–1
- 9Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 13–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 9Torres singled to left, Cabrera scored, Judge to second, Pereira to third.3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Bauers grounded into fielder's choice to third, Torres scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, Wells out at third.2–1
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Florial singled to center, Pereira scored, Florial to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Rafaela homered to left (400 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -113
- NYY +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −12 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +29 Elo | BOS 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 17th of 3033–36 | Road vs home | 37–3617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–8 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.