Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 14 K
Scoring summary
- 5H. Ramírez doubled to center, Díaz scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Paredes homered to left (358 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3B. Lowe homered to right center (416 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Wong tripled to right, Valdez scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.0 – 5.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +12 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +68 Elo | TB 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3036–34 | Road vs home | 46–242nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–8 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.