Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Christian BethancourtBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Kwan hit sacrifice fly to center, Bo Naylor scored.6–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 11Tena singled to right, Straw scored, Bo Naylor to third.6–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 11B. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Bruján scored.6–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 9Kwan singled to left, Straw scored, Tena to second.5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 15–4
- 6Siri homered to left (422 feet).5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Bethancourt homered to left center (386 feet), Raley scored and Walls scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Arias homered to right (388 feet), Brennan scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Gonzalez grounded out to third, Arias scored, Bo Naylor to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Giménez grounded out to pitcher, Kwan scored, Laureano to second, Calhoun to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Díaz homered to left center (426 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +8 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +23 Elo | TB 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 7th of 3037–30 | Road vs home | 34–3319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–2 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.